Under the Glass: two billion dollar studies, one priced below the market and one above it

Two TSX Venture companies put very large numbers on their projects this week. Surge Battery Metals (TSXV: NILI) released a prefeasibility study for Nevada North on October 2 with an after-tax net present value of US$9.81 billion. Omai Gold Mines (TSXV: OMG) filed the technical report behind its August PEA on October 5, at US$4.0 billion.

A study's value depends mostly on one input: the price it assumes for the metal. Here is how the two compare.

Side by side

	Surge, Nevada North	Omai Gold, Omai
Study type	Prefeasibility (PFS)	Preliminary (PEA)
After-tax NPV	US$9.81B at 8%	US$4.0B at 5%
After-tax IRR	23.6%	24%
Initial capital	US$2.77B (Phase 1)	US$1.427B
Price assumed	US$24,000/t lithium carbonate	US$3,600/oz gold
Market price, early October	about US$18,320/t	about US$4,140/oz
Basis	Proven and probable reserves	Indicated and inferred resources
Ownership	Surge 67.5%, Evolution Mining 32.5%	100%

Omai: priced below the market, but built on inferred ounces

Omai's base case uses US$3,600 gold, below the roughly US$4,140 gold traded at on October 2. At US$4,200, the company says the NPV rises to US$5.5 billion and the IRR to 30%.

The weakness is the resource underneath. The PEA draws on 2.5 million indicated ounces and 5.5 million inferred ounces. It projects 6.327 million payable ounces over 18 years. Even if every indicated ounce were mined and recovered at the study's 93% recovery, that would supply about 2.3 million ounces. By our arithmetic, about four million of the payable ounces, roughly 63%, have to come from inferred material. The release itself says inferred resources are "too speculative geologically" to be treated as reserves.

Surge: reserves, but priced above the market

Surge's study rests on proven and probable reserves of 218.3 million tonnes at 3,928 ppm lithium, which is the stronger foundation. Its price assumption, "unchanged at US$24,000/t," sits about 31% above the roughly US$18,320 lithium carbonate traded at on October 4.

The study's own sensitivity table helps. At 20% below the base price the NPV is US$6.37 billion. At 30% below it is US$4.64 billion. Interpolating between those, at today's price the NPV would be about US$5.7 billion, still large and still positive, but well short of the headline.

Two more points. Surge owns 67.5% of the project, so its share of the headline NPV is about US$6.6 billion. And Phase 1 capital of US$2.77 billion, including US$442 million of contingency, is followed by a US$2.35 billion Phase 2 expansion.

Why it matters

Headline NPVs are where junior mining marketing starts. The number to check is the price behind it, then the confidence category of the tonnes. Omai is conservative on price and aggressive on geology. Surge is the reverse.

Sources: Surge Battery Metals news release, October 2, 2026; Omai Gold Mines news release, October 5, 2026. Market prices: NetNewsLedger mining briefing, October 4, 2026.